Analyst says war in Ukraine turning into war of attrition

Ljubljana – Defence analyst Iztok Prezelj has assessed that the war in Ukraine is gradually turning into a war of attrition in which the side with more technical resources at its disposal will be more successful. He noted that the war could take several more years despite the sanctions, so conditions for coexistence with Russia should be created.

Prezelj, a professor of defence studies at the Ljubljana Faculty of Social Sciences, added in an interview with the STA that the war was currently in a “third phase, in which both sides are constantly trying to change the balance of powers”.

According to him, this is a very specific form of warfare, as the goals of either side are no longer achievable quickly, as an exceptionally large amount of artillery shells and missiles are being used, up to some 10,000 per day.

This has put a strain on logistics, especially on the Russian side, and “it appears as if logistics is not capable of keeping up with military operations, while in reality commanders on the front lines are very careful”.

Prezelj thinks that commanders want to secure areas by first shelling them to the maximum extent and only then trying to invade them with soldiers in what he labelled as a war of attrition in which the one with more technical resources will prevail.

The key role will thus be played by the financial, military and diplomatic support for Ukraine. “Without this support, the Russian forces would have occupied significantly more territory or peace negotiations would already be under way.”

According to Prezelj, support is crucial also from the aspect that the West does not want direct confrontation with Russia.

He added that the West is getting increasingly convinced that Russia will continue with the strategy of annexing territories that are loyal to it, so that it must be stopped now, as the cost of stopping Russia later would be higher.

Prezelj believes that the current situation is unsustainable in the long run for both sides. “A war of attrition can lead to a collapse of the financial and economic support for the military in Russia, or public opinion support for Putin,” he said.

Nevertheless, both sides could maintain the current situation for years, as the ongoing sanctions mainly affected Russia’s financial operations and their oligarchs, while having no direct impact on what Russia will do on the battlefield.

However, if the West is able to maintain the sanctions in the long run, this will undermine Russia’s financial basis for military operations, which is something the Russian authorities will be able to compensate for by using other resources.

“In reality, the sanctions have as much influence on the war as Russia will ultimately allow them to have,” Prezelj said, while adding that sanctions also had a psychological impact that should not be underestimated.

Eventually it will be diplomacy that resolves the conflict. “The time for true, constructive diplomacy will come when the military options on both sides are exhausted, i.e. when it will no longer be possible to do or achieve anything militarily.”

According to Prezelj, the ultimate goal of Russia and Putin is to restore the power that the Soviet Union once had, i.e. to make Russia again a powerful and important player and one of the poles in the international world order.

In addition to a peace agreement for Ukraine, an agreement on a new European security structure will also be required. “We must be aware that Russia is trying to tell us through the Ukrainian story that it wants a new security architecture.”

If the EU is able to create conditions for cohabitation with Russia, then there will be peace in Europe, otherwise other scenarios are possible in which Russia could get closer to China and help it in the battle with the US, Prezelj said.

As possible solutions, he mentioned a peace agreement between Russia and the West, re-establishing a permanent NATO-Russia council and establishing a joint security organisation in Europe in which Russia would be an equal partner.

“Only an agreement on a future security structure could ensure a lasting peace in Europe,” Prezelj concluded.

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