Missile attack by Iran on Israel: Netanyahu’s dilemma and Washington’s response in the Middle East

The two waves of Iranian missiles that filled Israel’s sky after five months create a situation that, depending on Netanyahu’s response, could either lead to full-scale conflict with Tehran or force Iran and its allied organizations to retreat for several years.

Once again, Israel holds the “upper hand” with Iran. Netanyahu is in a position to shape the situation and has successfully delivered clear blows to anyone who has stood against him in the past year.

Watch what people on the ground saw when Iran attacked Israel

Latest: https://t.co/7SBkHNPCv2 pic.twitter.com/HN3sn3ZAOd

— Sky News (@SkyNews) October 1, 2024

While the Israeli prime minister is often criticized, one cannot accuse him of inconsistency. “Bibi” has followed through on every public commitment, even when it resulted in more than 40,000 deaths in Gaza and the destruction of the enclave’s infrastructure. If he chooses to apply the same approach to Iran, no one should be surprised if, for the first time in its 76-year history, Israel sends its fighter jets over Iran’s nuclear valleys.

Israeli Interceptors being launched, followed by several Ballistic Missile Impacts in the Negev Desert of Southeastern Israel. pic.twitter.com/6ZzzFaRLqh

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 1, 2024

Israel appears determined to carry out its plan to defeat anyone who directly or indirectly threatens its security. Despite Iran’s reputation and history, it won’t be an obstacle capable of stopping this plan, which could create significant challenges for the rest of the world as well. A war between Israel and Iran currently exists only in “blueprints” and military manuals, but the same could be said of the Gulf War or the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in the past.

#BREAKING New videos confirm that the Iranian missiles struck the Nevatim Air Base in the Negev.

Man in the background says “Nevatim Air Base” pic.twitter.com/pBAltXLxTb

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) October 1, 2024

It’s clear that the U.S., under any president, would not want such a conflict. Even Donald Trump, despite needing the Jewish lobby’s votes, has stated that a war with Iran should not be fought by Israel, but rather by the U.S. if necessary.

Footage from earlier tonight showing several Iranian Long-Range Ballistic Missiles striking Tel Nof Airbase to the Southeast of Tel Aviv; with a Majority of Israeli Aircraft at the Base, including Two Squadrons of F-15C/D “Eagle” Multirole Fighters, said to have been in the Air… pic.twitter.com/wfs2kLFwHc

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 1, 2024

A war between Iran and Israel would reveal unknown aspects of Iran’s arsenal, particularly its conventional (non-nuclear) weaponry, which has remained largely uncharted since 2020. Iran’s ties with Russia may have given it an advantage, especially in its long-standing pursuit of nuclear or “dirty” weapons. Surprises in battles are rarely pleasant, and ideally, the U.S. would want to avoid such an outcome.

On the other hand, if Israel does not opt for a full confrontation with Iran, it must receive something in return that ensures its long-term security. At this point, Washington appears to have a proposal that could work under certain conditions. President Biden has ways to communicate with both Netanyahu and the Iranian theocratic regime. The U.S. has made it clear to Tehran that provocations must stop and will guarantee the same from Tel Aviv. However, U.S. commitments can only go so far, as Iran has a hardline base to satisfy domestically, and Israel has been following a strict path for the past year. Maintaining the critical balance in the region is a commitment the U.S. must uphold in the Middle East.

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