Missile or ally?

The reasons and implications of President Donald Trump's recent attack on Syria are being widely discussed. Yet what will be the impact on Turkey? How will the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Russia echo in Ankara? The answer seems to be short and crystal clear: From now on, Turkey needs to pursue a very delicate "policy of balance" between Washington and Moscow. 

To cut a long story short: First a chemical attack occurred in Syria. After that, Trump launched a missile strike at a Syrian air base. In just a couple of days, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited Russia. And contrary to expectations, both sides issued messages of strong cooperation. Even though the American side insisted during the meetings that Russia should withdraw its support from Bashar al-Assad, Trump declared the very same day "he would not get further involved in Syria."

This is of no surprise since al-Assad is not Trump's main target at all. After all, the U.S. representative to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said just the other day that their main priority is to "get the Iranian influence out of Syria." Furthermore, Trump aims to exclude Iran from the international system all in all as he has often declared. Hence the new American president is trying to convince Vladimir Putin not to move together with Iran within Syria in order to isolate Tehran.

But would Russia give up on al-Assad or Iran? Both are not impossible, yet certainly more than difficult.
First and foremost, Russia's support for the al-Assad regime dates back to the Soviet era, to 47 years ago. Then the Soviets used to back Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current Syrian president. Later the Russian Federation continued the support for the al-Assad regime through the son...