Europe’s Demographic Dip is a Challenge – Not a Disaster

Data compiled by Tomas Sobotka, a leading demographer, show that birth rates in Europe have shown signs of recovery in the last few months. Whether or not this trend continues will depend on how lasting the social and economic impacts of the pandemic will be.

A woman is breastfeeding her child during officials conduct a demographic census in the Reception Center for Supported Living for Homeless Families Vizbegovo, in the village of Vizbegovo near Skopje, North Macedonia, 03 March 2021. Photo: EPA-EFE/GEORGI LICOVSKI

However, the focus on birth rates misses the larger point. Rather than worrying about the ups and downs of population numbers, it is time we recognized that low fertility is likely here to stay. And it is time to come to grips with what needs to be done to prepare our economies and societies for this all but inevitable demographic future.

This is not an easy shift. Common wisdom has it that high birth rates and population growth are desirable for countries, signs of national wealth and power. We are used to thinking in these categories. And it is true that economies may indeed shrink, in absolute terms, when populations become smaller.

But this does not mean that people will become poorer. Per capita prosperity might well go up as workforces get smaller, salaries are likely to rise, and increasing automation lifts productivity. Smaller populations are also good for the planet; fewer people means less consumption, less pressure on scarce resources and less pollution.

The transition from population growth to population decrease is challenging, as many countries, especially those in Eastern Europe, can testify. Societies are ageing rapidly, there are fewer working-age people to provide for an ever-increasing number of older...