French Elections: Exit polls show Le Pen leading with 33-34%

A victory for Marine Le Pen’s party, as expected, is indicated by the first exit polls from the parliamentary elections in France.

Estimates give Le Pen’s National Rally 33%, while the New People’s Union, the coalition of the Center and the Left, is at 28.5%.

In third place, at a distance, is the party of President Emmanuel Macron with 22%.

As for the other parties, the Republicans are at 10.5%, while parties of the far-left and far-right, running outside coalitions, range from 0.5% to 2%.

Similar results are reflected in the exit poll by Le Monde, which gives Le Pen’s National Rally 34%, the New People’s Union 28.1%, and Macron’s Renaissance party 20.3%.

TF1’s projection gives 34.2% to the National Rally, 29.1% to the Union, and 21.5% to Macron’s party.

Seat distribution

The crucial factor is how these results translate into seats in the National Assembly. Le Pen’s party is projected to have 260-310 seats, needing 289 for a majority. The Union is expected to have about 115-145 seats, and Macron’s party around 90-120 seats. It should be noted that the constituencies are single-member districts.

The projection broadcast by BFMTV leaves open the possibility of a majority for Le Pen’s party from the first round, an outcome that would cause a political earthquake in France and Europe. In contrast, the results are a disaster for Macron’s party, shrinking from 245 seats to just 90-120 seats, less than a third of its current strength.

Ipsos predicted a range of 230-280 seats for Le Pen’s National Rally and its allies in a poll for French Television.

Voter turnout

A significant factor that may have been decisive in the outcome was the high voter turnout, reaching 70%. Notably, at 5 PM (French time), it was about 60%, more than 20 points higher than the previous parliamentary elections. This turnout rate is a record for the last four decades.

With these conditions, attention turns to the next day. The questions that need to be answered are whether Le Pen’s party will achieve a majority in the second round or if the Union can form a real barrier against her. Additionally, how the cohabitation with Macron will unfold.

Macron: “Front against Le Pen”

In an initial reaction to the results, President Emmanuel Macron said in a written statement that the increased turnout shows the desire to “clarify the political situation,” adding that the results indicate a “democratic front” against Le Pen’s National Rally.

“Their democratic choice obliges us,” he said of the voters, emphasizing that “against the Rally, it is time for a broad, clearly democratic coalition for the second round.”

Le Pen: We Want a Clear Majority

Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN, is calling for an “absolute majority” in the second round.

“Democracy has spoken,” said Le Pen from northern France, where she was re-elected in the first round. She explained that “voters clearly showed their desire to turn the page after seven years of contemptuous and corrosive power” from Macron.

However, she pointed out that “nothing is won and the second round will be decisive, to prevent the country from falling into the hands of a coalition of a far-left with violent tendencies.” “We need an absolute majority for Jordan Bardella to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron in eight days,” she added.

What will happen in the second round

The second round will take place on July 7. In each of the 577 electoral districts, if no candidate wins more than 50% in the first round, the candidates who secure the support of at least 12.5% of registered voters advance to the second round.

The second round is often a contest between two parties – in the previous parliamentary elections, in 2022, there were only seven cases with three candidates.

The system is vulnerable to political maneuvers, where parties withdraw their candidates to rally support for an ally and keep an opponent out, as well as to tactical voting.

After the elections, the president appoints a new prime minister. In the event of possible cohabitation (where the president and the government are from different political tendencies) and especially in a parliament without a majority, the constitution does not specify any criteria for this appointment. The president could appoint a technocrat or politician, even someone who may or may not have a parliamentary majority.

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