The Green Requiem, the triangular meetings, the Psychiko PASOK and the vote from Paris, the Americans and ELVO, and the big names at Spetsathlon

Greetings! So, yesterday, the “day after” PASOK’s first ballot, the atmosphere inside felt like Verdi’s “Requiem“. The general disappointment from the outcome isn’t just limited to Pavlos and Anna’s camps, but also to their 130,000 voters. While that’s significantly more than Androulakis’ 90,000 or Doukas’ 65,000, unfortunately, they ended up “split” in two and failed. And so, despite sharing a roughly common goal—the Geroulanos and Diamantopoulou voters’ vision of a serious PASOK that could stand up to the “spoiled government” playing alone, as they used to say—they ultimately canceled each other out.

Who’s Voting for Whom?
Now, as you can imagine, everyone will be talking to everyone for support, agreements, and generally political deals, because these people are politicians, and unfortunately, this is their main job (let’s not forget that). So, in the next few days, you’ll hear a lot about staff negotiations, backroom talks, promises for positions, vice presidencies, etc. But I seriously doubt that anything that will get agreed upon—if anything is agreed upon—will make much sense, because the four main players who competed in Sunday’s election each have a completely different mindset and political direction. As for their voters, especially those of the two who are out of the race (i.e., Geroulanos and Diamantopoulou), they’re more likely to vote for Mitsotakis than for Androulakis or Doukas. I’m told that today or tomorrow Geroulanos will meet with both Androulakis and Doukas, but he’ll make it clear that there’s no official directive. As for Anna, they say that Nikos promised her a vice-presidency or a role in drafting PASOK’s program (can you imagine the fun?), but, as I repeat, “you can’t take from someone who doesn’t have anything to give.”

PASOK in Psychiko…
I have a very illustrative example. At the PASOK polling station in Palaio Psychiko (A’ Square), a former PASOK minister (from the Andreas era) is patiently waiting in line to vote. The 65-year-old lady, thin, with short auburn hair, a member of PASOK’s electoral committee (looked like a supporter of Nikos, or maybe Haris), recognizes the former minister, approaches him, and starts ranting: “Look at what’s happening here, my minister. All the right-wingers came to vote and mess up our party, to get their own people elected (I assume she meant Anna). We should go to the next ND elections and get our own people elected too…”, the lady said, but of course, the minister looked at her a bit puzzled and politely avoided responding. Now, I’d have loved to tell her (if I were there), “my dear, if serious PASOK folks were relying on you, you’d have gotten Evangelos Meimarakis elected in 2016, and along with Pavlopoulos and Karamnlis, Tsipras would still be governing,” but, alas, I wasn’t there.

Moral of the Story…
So, don’t overthink it. The PASOK crowd is leaning towards Nikos A., who has a strong, organized party mechanism with an equally disciplined audience of 80,000-90,000 people who have firmly entrenched their position, and…Nikolas will keep winning. Lately, a new segment of PASOK-SYRIZA folks has also been drawn in, attracted by the scent of power, in this case, the Athens municipality. Androulakis has PASOK’s stamp of approval; he’s the president, and Doukas is the mayor trying to grab both seals. That’s why I think out of the 300,000 who showed up last time, almost half won’t return. At most, 200,000 will vote.

M.M.
Now that the champagne has run out at M.M. from the PASOK election results celebrations (so to speak), some are having second thoughts. “When you’ve got nothing to your left, it’s natural to look at what’s happening on your right,” says my source, adding, “Androulakis’ questions in Parliament will be a single column, while ours will make the front page because it’s a ‘sexier’ story.” And they’re right…

Paris-Katrinis
Let me wrap up with a hilarious tweet someone sent me from a troll named Koiniav, who posted the PASOK Paris election results. In the relevant chart, Katrinis is shown to have received exactly one vote. So, the troll says, “I want to meet the person living in Paris who went to the polling station on Sunday just to vote for Katrinis.” Me too!

Will it Rain…National Bank Today?
National Bank shares were credited to Greek investors yesterday, and today they can proceed with sales if they want. Usually, people sign up for more shares than they actually want, expecting that only a part of their demand will be met. In the case of the National Bank’s placement, Greek private investors received 76.8% of the shares they requested, so today’s session is expected to see some selling. However, reports indicate that some top foreign institutional investors, such as Wellington, Capital, RWC, Columbia Threadneedle, Blackrock, GIC, Robeco, Norges, Fidelity, and others, also took positions in the National Bank through this placement.

Discussions with American Funds about ELVO

– It’s been roughly three and a half years since February 12, 2021, when the ownership of the then-state-owned ELVO was transferred to the Israelis of PLASAN and SK Group, and minority shareholder A. Glynis for €3 million. That summer, the Hellenic Vehicle Industry (ELVO) got its second chance when it was passed to Thessaloniki businessman Ath. Kouimtzi. After acquiring ELVO, the Kouimtzi Group aims to showcase the potential of the Greek defense industry, and reports indicate that it plans to collaborate with an American fund to transform ELVO into a regional hub for factory maintenance and repair of U.S. Army vehicles in the Balkans and Southeast Europe. Next steps include restructuring facilities and modernizing production so that ELVO’s products can be internationally competitive.

V. Lazarakou at FCA Today

– Today, in London, the English supervisory authority FCA is holding its conference on international markets. The president of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission, V. Lazarakou, has been invited to participate in a discussion on the priorities of supervisory authorities alongside ESMA Chair V. Ross, FCA Executive Director S. Pritchard, CEO of Hong Kong’s regulatory authority J. Leung, and senior BIS executive G. Gelos. On the sidelines of the conference, V. Lazarakou will hold meetings on capital market issues.

Entrepreneurs Who Stood Out at Spetsathlon

– Despite some absences (with a few choosing to be involved in the PASOK race), last weekend’s Spetsathlon was a great success with high business participation. The one who impressed was Deputy Minister M. Themistocleous, who achieved an excellent time running 25 km and swimming 3 km. An “Iron Man” proved to be B. Haratsis of Beta Securities, who swam 1.5 km, ran 5 km, and took first place in the 60-64 age category. Deloitte’s CEO D. Koutsopoulos also stood out, running 25 km and finishing 11th in the 50-59 category. Alexandros Kikizas of Melissa ran 5 km, while L’Oreal’s CEO, Alessandra Delfini, proved to be a true dolphin, easily swimming the 3 km from Costa to Spetses beach. Aegean was represented by D. Gerogiannis, who ran 10 km.

The “Spy” Auctions

– Businessman Nikos Bogonikolos may have narrowly escaped the “clutches” of the FBI and U.S. intelligence agencies, as his case involving conspiracy charges against the U.S. and in favor of Russia ended well. However, it appears extremely difficult for him to evade the “clutches” of auctions here in Greece. The head of Aratos Technologies, who was arrested in May 2023 in Paris and later sent to the U.S., lost two of his company’s offices in Patras over the summer. On July 10, 2024, Cepal auctioned off two offices, 23 sq.m. and 55 sq.m., located on the 2nd and 3rd floors of the Kola Commercial Center, next to Georgiou Square in downtown Patras. The starting prices were €32,000 and €77,000, but the smaller office sold for €60,000 and the larger for €106,000. And there’s more to come… Cepal has scheduled another auction on April 23, 2025, for a second-floor apartment of N. Bogonikolos in Patras. The 87.11 sq.m. apartment, located on Maizonos Street, features three bedrooms, a kitchen, a bathroom, a living-dining room, and balconies facing the eastern, northern, and southern uncovered areas. The starting bid is set at €129,000, but the property is burdened with liens, mortgages, and several seizures in favor of banks and the state. The moral of the story? You might escape a James Bond-style thriller, but your debts…never.

Eurobank and the “Athenian Melathron”

– Quietly last summer, Eurobank acquired one of the capital’s most historic buildings, the well-known “Athenian Melathron” at the intersection of Stadiou and Kolokotroni streets, for €52 million. The building belonged to the company ADEXA S.A., founded in 1937, which passed to the control of the Bamoutzali family from Saudi Arabia in the 1980s. After the sale, Philippos Karamanolis, General Manager of Central Operations and Functions of the Eurobank Group, took over as chairman and CEO of ADEXA. Eurobank is now absorbing ADEXA, and the merger plan has already been posted to the relevant authorities. All of ADEXA’s assets, including the iconic “Athenian Melathron” (formerly known as the Afentoulis Mansion), will be transferred to Eurobank, which plans to house a large portion of its administrative services there once the building’s renovation is complete. The location is clearly more prominent and spacious than the current Eurobank headquarters, which is somewhat “cramped.”

Cenergy’s Capital Increase Begins Today

– Cenergy kicks off its €200 million capital increase today, aiming to cover the order book by Thursday, as the process for Attica Bank’s capital increase begins on Friday. The new shares will be listed for trading on October 15. With this move, Cenergy not only strengthens its capital base but also increases the free float of its shares to 27.9%. Those who held shares until yesterday are eligible to participate in the capital increase.

The 265 Shares of Karelia

– The Karelia Tobacco Company is currently valued at just under €1 billion. It is a publicly traded company with healthy fundamentals, happy employees, good prospects, and a very strong cash reserve (hundreds of millions of euros). What it lacks, however, is free float (shares in open circulation) and agreement among its main shareholders on future strategic choices. On one side, you have Andreas (22%) and Stathis Karelias (21.2%), Victoria Karelia (7.149%), and the Karelia Foundation (7.149%). On the other side, there’s Ioanna Karelia (31.964%) and Asimina Spiropoulou (13.422%). Together, they control well over 90% of the company’s capital. As none of them are willing to reduce their stake, the stock barely moves on the exchange with minimal trading. Recently, however, there has been a slight increase in activity. Yesterday, for instance, 265 shares (!) changed hands at €350 per share, an unusually large(?) volume of trades. Sources indicate that both sides have engaged a specialized advisor to find a solution to improve the stock’s liquidity (as required by the new stock exchange regulations) without altering the existing shareholding balance. Yesterday’s activity seems to be tied to this effort…

Markets Gone Mad

– For the first time since August, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury exceeded 4%. Brent oil futures are flirting with $80 (the biggest weekly gain since January 2023). Stock markets are anticipating – have already priced in – the upcoming U.S. rate cut, but fear the ongoing military operations in the Middle East. The dollar is strengthening internationally as a “safe currency” despite massive public debt. Fifteen years ago, in 2009, the market capitalization of the U.S. stock market accounted for 30% of global stock market capitalization. Today, it’s close to 50%. The S&P 500 is recording the highest annual return since 1997. Tech stocks represent 32% of the S&P 500’s capitalization, just one percentage point below the Dot-Com bubble. If we include Communication Services stocks, the value of tech stocks accounts for 43% of the market, which is TWICE as much as the financial stocks bubble in 2007, just before the Lehman Brothers crisis erupted.

How Rich Is the Top 1% of Americans?

– As the U.S. heads into another election season, the debate over the notorious top 1% of Americans getting richer by the day, versus the 99% who – with varying income levels and subcategories – struggle to make ends meet in the wealthiest country on the planet, is heating up. The Federal Reserve (FED) has added some numbers to this discussion. According to the FED, the total net worth of the top 1% (those with wealth exceeding $11 million) increased by nearly $2 trillion, reaching a record high of $46.2 trillion in the first quarter of 2024. Obviously, not everyone else is poor. There’s a large middle class, and some people even own $10 million…which isn’t exactly peanuts. The conclusion, however, is that the wealth gap has widened significantly.

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