Recessions

The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) continued its positive year-over-year growth trend in April 2023, providing further support for the economic forecasts of the Cypriot economy. Despite expectations of a slowdown, the economy is seen avoiding a recession, as indicated by the Economics Research Center (ERC) of the University of Cyprus' Economics Department.

Britain's economy grew 0.1 percent over the first quarter despite weakening in March, official data revealed Friday, as output continues to be hit by high inflation and strikes.

After narrowly avoiding recession last year, the economy advanced 0.5 percent in January before flattening in February and sliding 0.3 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.

German industrial orders suffered their biggest fall in March since 2020, official data showed Friday, fuelling fears that Europe's biggest economy is entering a sharp downturn.

The Bulgarian economy will slow its growth to 1.8 percent this year, according to the spring macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Finance.

Due to the Russian war against Ukraine, an alternative scenario has also been developed, according to which the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices may deviate downwards by between 0.5 percentage points.

The Eurozone economy will avoid recession this winter after growing by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to official data from the European Union's Statistics Agency.

The figure was lower than the 0.3% growth recorded in the third quarter of 2022, but better than economists' forecasts for a contraction.

EU auto sales slumped by 14 percent in the first half of this year, data showed on July 15, as supply shortages continued to plague manufacturers.

With the lack of computer chips still hobbling production, new auto sales slumped to 4.6 million in the European Union, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association showed.

The end-year inflation expectations in Türkiye increased from 64.59 percent in June to 69.94 in July, according to the Central Bank's Survey of Market Participants.

Consumer prices are expected to increase by 3.4 percent on a monthly basis in June, while the monthly inflation rate is forecast to ease to 2.88 percent in August, the survey, which was released on July 8, also showed.

"The situation in the world economy is extremely unstable and recessions are not excluded", the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, said in an interview with Reuters.

Asked about a possible global recession, the fund manager stressed: "The risk has increased, so it cannot be ruled out."

British retail sales by volume dropped in May as soaring inflation caused consumers to limit spending, especially on food, official data showed on June 24.

Sales fell 0.5 percent compared with a rise of 0.4 percent in April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
April's data was sharply revised lower after an initial estimate showed retail sales had jumped 1.4 percent.

The consumer confidence index that inched up 0.4 percent in May declined by 6.2 percent monthly in June, according to data released on June 22. 

The index, which stood at 81.7 in June 2021, declined from 67.8 in May to 63.4, this month, showed the regular consumer tendency survey conducted jointly by the Central Bank and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).