What will Turkey and the US do after the fall of Mosul?

Last week I was in Israel to attend the Herzliya Conference, a high level international security conference taking place annually in Tel Aviv. On the sidelines of the conference I had a conversation with Ehud Barak, former Prime Minister and Defence Minister of Israel. Since we met right after the Mosul assault, Iraq has been the center of gravity of our conversation.

“Countries cannot choose their geography, just as children cannot choose their parents”, says Barak. He is almost certain that the longstanding frightening scenario which is the disintegration of Iraq, is now taking place. Yet, according to that scenario, it would be the Sunni politicians who would take control of central Iraq, not the ISIL (the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant). Hence the ongoing scenario is so frightening that it could not even be imagined. Barak says that the ISIL is now in the process of building an Islamic state in central Iraq.

The former Israeli Prime Minister thinks that the U.S. could now take action in order to change the situation on the ground and also to show to the world that it is not passive and weak.That Russia is busy on Ukraine could also make this slightly less complicated. Accordingly, this could be through limited air attacks, targeting some ISIL spots. And also forming no fly zones over refugee concentrations in Syria close to Turkish and Jordanian borders. This would be on the basis of Turkey-U.S. cooperation.

Barak states that Turkey cannot afford not to take action when its direct interests are at stake since it is a major regional power. He adds that the recent regional developments might make Israel and Turkey ready to come closer since they need each other now even more.

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