Europe needs new investment, not new rules

By Guntram B. Wolff *

As the European Council meets in Brussels this week, the big debate on what a new policy deal for Europe could look like has re-emerged. Opponents group themselves around the famous “stability” vs “growth” camps, with the former arguing for the merits of fiscal discipline while the latter argues fiscal flexibility to finance reforms is more prudent. The “growth” camp points to the harsh reality that once the fiscal compact kicks in, it requires substantial savings by the government, while the “stability” camp emphasizes that this is exactly what is needed to render high debt levels and unfavorable debt dynamics more sustainable.

In my view, the EU must avoid another useless fight over its fiscal rules and instead use political capital to foster growth. A deal could be designed along three central elements.

The first element starts with the recognition that debt levels in several countries are already very high. The fiscal space to engage in a new stimulus as a growth instrument is simply not there and one must avoid risking a new financial crisis.

In particular, in countries where the size of the state is already very large and the efficiency of the government sector is questionable, a new fiscal stimulus should be avoided. The most convincing national growth proposition in such circumstances is a serious reform of the state and an adjustment of fiscal expenditure away from rents to much more needed growth enhancing public goods. The current fiscal rules already allow a slow-down in fiscal consolidation in exchange for serious structural reforms.

The second element of a deal would be recognizing that it is very difficult to maintain debt sustainable and primary surpluses high when euro area inflation rates...