A footballer's take on the economy

The Turkish economy is doing well. There is a tiny bit of volatility in the exchange rate. I believe that interest rates need to fall. Investors and entrepreneurs are doing well. And they should so that shopkeepers can continue to earn money.

Obviously, these are not my remarks. They belong to Turkish footballer Arda Turan, who shared President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an?s views on the Turkish economy with the Hürriyet Daily News? big brother, Hürriyet, on March 25. I am not angry with Arda for poking his nose into my domain. After all, 99.99 percent of Turks, including your friendly neighborhood economist, discuss football every day. So he has every right to speak on economics ? as well as anything else ? as often as he likes.

Neither am I belittling him for getting basic economic facts wrong. I shared my views on interest rates several times during the last few weeks. And I would not call the most recent exchange rate volatility ?tiny bit.? However, Arda is implicitly aware of the interdependence of different sectors of the economy, which would make him more knowledgeable in the dismal science than Erdo?an?s economic advisers.

But I feel I should correct one of his remarks: The Turkish economy is not doing well at all, as confirmed by the latest data. For example, March consumer and real sector confidence indices, which were released on March 23 and 25 respectively, plunged. The fall in consumer confidence was especially notable, as the index hit a six-year low.

Interestingly enough, some economists played down the dive in consumer confidence, noting that the index reacts to the lira-dollar exchange rate. There is indeed a correlation, but it is not as strong as many claim. Even though the government?s spin-doctors in pro...