Turkey under the influence of hot international winds and cold domestic winds

AP photo

Interesting days have begun for Turkey and the like "emerging countries." The central countries have loosened their monetary policies and money is again pouring into emerging countries? This creates the effect of a hot wind?   

However, cold winds are blowing in the domestic climates of emerging countries, primarily Turkey. This situation decreases the effect of the hot wind. Nevertheless, those emerging countries with a warmer domestic climate have an opportunity to breathe, even if it is for only a couple of months. 

What about Turkey? What do Turkey's tense political climate, increasing terror barometer and associated non-decreasing risks cause the country to lose? Everybody is curious and debating. 

Hot winds 

As 2015 was ending, the fear of a repetition of the 2008 shock and the global crisis recurring was widespread. Global markets starting from December 2015 had entered the sales period. Sales intensified in January. In such an environment, even though the U.S. Central Bank (Fed) had made its first rate hike in 2015, it started giving signals that it would hit the brakes. It skipped the hoped for rate hikes in March. 

At the end of January the Japanese Central Bank decided on negative interest rates. The European Central Bank announced on Jan. 21 that it would increase monetary expansion. It started this practice in March. Jan. 21 at the same time remained the trough of market deteriorations. Oil prices fell to $27.10.

The policy changes and the verbal guidance of the EU, Japanese and U.S. central banks stopped the downward course. Recovery started in the second half of February. 

It became clearer that the U.S., at least for a while, would not hike rates in order to not disrupt the...

Continue reading on: