Nagorno-Karabakh conundrum

The speed of the world politics as such that our attentions are diverted every day to a different part of the world, where a new, or sometimes not so-new, conflicts, crises, problems flare up. Most of the time, the world leadership, content with window dressing, fails to address their root causes and keeps them simmering until the next time they pop up, almost always "unexpectedly." Of course, only unknown in these conflicts are when exactly they burst open again, not if. The most recent such eruption took place in the South Caucasus on the night of April 1, 2016, between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the not-so-frozen conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Amid the immense media posturing from both sides, with abundant accusations and speculations regarding the immediate reason for fighting, it was no surprise for the region watchers, who have been signaling towards increased tension in recent months across the cease-fire line.

To recap the well-known history of the crisis, even if we forgo its historic nature dating back to the early 20th century, the latest episode dates back to late 1988, when Azerbaijanis and Armenians started to position themselves before their impending independence. When the eventual full-scale war ended with a cease-fire in 1994, it left approximately 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region, under Armenian control, resulting in about a million refugees on both sides. 

Despite the years of negotiations under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, there has been no tangible move towards solution. The co-chairs of Minsk Group consisting of Russia, France and the U.S. have been accused frequently of aiming to maintain the status quo rather...