An independent Kurdistan? Really?

The independence of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is being discussed once and more. Most recently, KRG President Massoud Barzani cited the disintegration of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia in reference to Iraq's future. He inflamed the longstanding discussion about independence, saying, "Kurds have the right to self-determination just as Eastern European people do."

Since he had just completed a visit to Turkey, this paved the way for questioning whether the issue of independence had been on the agenda in the bilateral meetings. However, Ankara takes a dim view of Kurdistan's independence for now, just as the United States and Iran do. One of the reasons behind this is that such a development could further trigger chaos in the region. Second, Ankara is worried that this would encourage Turkey and Syria's Kurds in the same direction.

Ankara's concern is not baseless at all. The Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the People's Protection Units in northern Syria, which are affiliated to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), are becoming increasingly consolidated. Turkey's Euphrates Shield Operation has blocked the PYD's bid to unite its cantons in the north for the time being. But on the other hand, the post-Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) map of Syria has become almost clear. The PYD's zone of influence in the north is being supported by both U.S. and Russia. Moreover, even Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who has been opposing any Kurdish autonomy in his country, seems to have accepted this reality for now.

In addition, the American army seems to be continuing to use the YPG as its fighting force in Syria. Russia is also using the "Kurdish card" to the full extent. The more Ankara intensifies its contacts...