Erdogan's high-risk games

During a visit to Istanbul a few years ago, I met with a Western diplomat who at the time held a post in Turkey. After talking about Greek-Turkish relations and the Cyprus problem, our conversation turned to political and economic developments in Turkey. The country's economy was growing, so I was surprised at the certainty with which the foreign official was warning about the looming financial uncertainty brought about the dangerous antics of an unstable leader.

That was in the days before Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Europeans "Nazis" and "fascists," before his threats to flood the European Union with thousands of refugees, and before his warnings that the Europeans "will not walk safely in the streets."

Sure, Erdogan had already walked off the stage after an angry exchange with Israeli President Shimon Peres during a panel on Gaza at the World Economic Forum in Davos....