In 11 weeks, everything is at stake for the center-left: Who will survive & who will perish in PASOK & SYRIZA

With a difference of 58 days—on October 13 and December 1—PASOK and SYRIZA will elect their leadership. In PASOK, which has now solidified its position in second place in the polls, they expect a record turnout in a three-way contest, while in SYRIZA, everything is now open: from Stefanos Kasselakis’ supporters repeating their massive turnout from last year, with Pavlos Polakis as his main opponent, to the possibility of the main opposition party ending up in court, with the parliamentary group secretary Theodora Tzakri requesting the reinstatement of the ousted president, ridiculing the process.

Since 2019, pollsters have been constantly searching for Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ rival, and now they have shifted their attention to what is happening in PASOK. It failed to capitalize on SYRIZA’s internal problems in last June’s European elections and remained in third place. But the announcement of internal elections in the third party coincided with the peak of the challenge to Stefanos Kasselakis, leading to his removal from the presidency and the announcement of new elections in SYRIZA, with PASOK once again in second place in the polls.

It is noted that this also occurred from November 2023 until the end of February 2024, but a series of political mistakes by PASOK’s leadership, combined with Kasselakis’ victory at SYRIZA’s conference—despite the intervention of Alexis Tsipras—overturned the dynamics. This time, much more will be needed to bring about a new reversal…

The Scenarios and Tsipras

The elections in PASOK are yet another episode in the saga of the “united Center-Left,” with the scenario written by old SYRIZA members who moved to KINAL and stayed in PASOK, as well as the so-called “orphan” party members of Alexis Tsipras who remained in SYRIZA and ousted Kasselakis within 11 months. As Kasselakis’ leadership came under fire after the European elections, Tsipras’ name began to circulate—there were even related polls—as a possible leader of a unified formation, which according to the architects of these scenarios, could become the rival power to New Democracy in the next elections.

In PASOK, however, the presidential candidates see things quite differently: Nikos Androulakis, who impressed by gathering the majority of the Central Committee and nearly 25,000 members supporting his candidacy—25% of those who voted for him in the first round of the 2021 internal elections—has long stated that he will make a “brave outreach” to the Center-Left leaders. However, both he and the other candidates, including Charis Doukas, are not referring to cooperation but to “transfers” from SYRIZA and the broader left-wing space. They do not envision a role for Alexis Tsipras but for themselves.

It is also noted that in PASOK, a “wall” has long been built against party officials who left and moved to SYRIZA. Experienced PASOK officials bet that whoever is elected will face significant internal resistance in making a general outreach to left-wing figures, as there is a danger that people who are “red flags” for PASOK voters, such as Yiannis Ragousis, Thanasis Theochariopoulos, and many others, might respond positively.

Moreover, PASOK officials note that the more left-leaning a candidate is—Charis Doukas being a prime example—the stronger the resistance from the party leaders will be to calls for unity within the Center-Left, especially if PASOK’s election is accompanied, as it usually is, by a rise in the polls, narrowing the gap with New Democracy. They also mention that it would be easier for any PASOK leader to “transfer authentic SYRIZA officials who have not clashed with the party” rather than issuing a call to those who initially came from PASOK.

It is noted that in 2019, the PASOK-SYRIZA ratio was one to four, and with New Democracy, one to five. Now, with New Democracy, it is one to two, while with SYRIZA, it has been reversed. This development leads PASOK’s presidential candidates to insist on the party’s independent course, shelving scenarios of a “united Center-Left.”

Deadlocks

However, SYRIZA officials cannot take the same approach. Leaders like Christos Spirtzis, who avoided being expelled after the removal of Kasselakis, have been promoting the idea of a “united Center-Left” ever since Kasselakis was elected, seeing such a structure as a way to secure a special role, having spent years in PASOK. SYRIZA-Progressive Alliance seeks further coordination of progressive forces moving forward, with the ultimate goal of electoral cooperation.

Indeed, the head of SYRIZA’s parliamentary group, Nikos Pappas, announced yesterday at the Thessaloniki International Fair that SYRIZA aims for further coordination of progressive forces moving forward, with a view toward eventual electoral cooperation.

And it’s not only the “marked” SYRIZA leaders paying attention to the developments in PASOK. Even people beyond suspicion, such as Olga Gerovasili, publicly and without hesitation include PASOK among the progressive parties—despite their statements being read primarily through the lens of internal conflict within SYRIZA and the battle between older officials and Stefanos Kasselakis and his team.

The “87” members of SYRIZA are facing multiple deadlocks. To achieve the internal victory of ousting Kasselakis, they were forced to ally with Pavlos Polakis and members of Nikos Pappas’ group. However, they currently lack an obvious candidate for the internal elections, at least for the first round, where impressions will matter, especially if Stefanos Kasselakis is allowed to run.

In reality, they know whom they don’t want, but at this moment, they don’t have a name that could take on the ousted president, who, according to polls, still resonates with a certain audience despite SYRIZA’s plummeting numbers.

Olga Gerovasili is currently against a second candidacy after the conference last February, while Sokratis Famellos is under scrutiny for the stance he took publicly against Stefanos Kasselakis. Famellos, along with Nikos Pappas, was one of the key players at the February conference, working to block Tsipras’ push for internal elections at that time. Additionally, Nikolas Farantouris is polling very low in the surveys that have been made public, while Pavlos Polakis is not someone who can easily garner support from members of Alexis Tsipras’ inner circle.

The Gaps and PASOK

Unlike SYRIZA, the tone in PASOK has so far remained low-key; it is noteworthy that three of the presidential candidates—Anna Diamantopoulou, Nadia Giannakopoulou, and Pavlos Geroulanos—attended Nikos Androulakis’ speech at the Thessaloniki International Fair.

In most polls conducted, a three-way contest emerges, with Nikos Androulakis having the lowest odds with bookmakers, hence the greatest likelihood of being elected. Charis Doukas—who, for many, personifies the “united Center-Left” after his electoral victory in the Athens Municipality and his excellent cooperation with Kostas Zachariadis’ municipal faction—leads in some polls or closely follows Androulakis. Meanwhile, Anna Diamantopoulou, who launched her election campaign later, is slightly behind, as is Pavlos Geroulanos.

PASOK entered the electoral fray after its “nearly stagnant” result in the European elections. Initially, there was a question about whether there was a need to push a party to internal elections after elections where it was not among the losers. However, the dramatic developments in SYRIZA, as well as the significant losses suffered by New Democracy despite its comfortable first-place finish in the European elections, have multiplied the potential voters for PASOK’s leadership election.

Most pollsters report that the sentiment recorded in society is quite substantial regarding the turnout for PASOK’s elections—though it is not certain that these voters’ intentions will materialize into action.

However, the six leadership candidates are increasingly becoming prominent in the race.

The unifying atmosphere, as reflected in yesterday’s initial election rehearsal, is “seasoned” with sharp remarks, which may later evolve into direct attacks against their main rivals.

It is known that in the last internal elections—held in December 2021, when Nikos Androulakis was elected—270,000 people participated, setting a record for the party, except for the huge turnout in 2004 when nearly a million citizens voted to elect George Papandreou as party leader unopposed.

Of course, it should be noted that Androulakis’ election followed the sudden death of the late Fofi Gennimata, which shocked Greece and brought the spotlight to PASOK.

Today, participation in PASOK’s elections is expected to break records for purely political reasons: the events in the main opposition party are leading many former PASOK voters who moved to SYRIZA to seek a more “left-leaning” solution, either Pavlos Geroulanos or Charis Doukas, while New Democracy’s erosion is sending centrist voters to Anna Diamantopoulou.

Participation and the Second Round

Pollsters note that participation in PASOK’s internal elections does not necessarily mean that these citizens—whether from the right or the left—are ready to change their votes in national elections. However, such participation, especially if it reaches massive proportions, will clearly change the dynamics in PASOK’s leadership election.

According to most surveys, Nikos Androulakis has a greater or lesser but still substantial lead among PASOK voters, but not among those who say they “definitely will go to vote,” while these voters are from either New Democracy or SYRIZA.

This means that if even the most optimistic participation estimates are exceeded, the advantage will go to candidates who appeal primarily to different voter groups.

Regarding the likely second round, it is too early for definitive assessments, as much will depend on the percentages each candidate receives.

However, Mr. Geroulanos’ stance against Doukas’ candidacy—insisting on the incompatibility—indicates he will be opposed to him. On the other hand, it is considered certain that Doukas, Diamantopoulou, Katrinis, and Giannakopoulou maintain good interpersonal relations, which could impact their positions depending on the results.

In any case, the fact that five candidates have challenged Nikos Androulakis speaks volumes about their next moves.

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