US D-Day, SYRIZA’s mill, takeover of Douka Schools, discussions over Barba Stathis, and the “loss” of Ohio

The government and especially the PM are waiting with obvious interest in what today will bring, if you put in the time difference, probably be Wednesday morning, the PM has some events to attend but mostly he will remain in his office watching like everyone else. No predictions maybe a slight sense that the pollsters in the last few days have overblown Trump’s numbers. But maybe it’s also a Democratic wishful thinking. See here…

SYRIZA – Mill

-However, sooner or later, Americans will find out what they voted for at the polls, but that is far from certain to be the case with Syriza. All of us may never know who won the party convention in this weekend’s election except by who prevails in the chairs that fall there, if and when that eventually happens. You will tell me why the students in the auditoriums knew who was “winning” in the end? Anyway, can we agree that if you were just a voter, a citizen let’s say, who had voted or was thinking of voting for them again would you ever do so after such a prolonged farce? Kasselakis is celebrating and getting numbers (!) from delegates all over Greece, the Priesthood (according to Stephen’s trolls who continue to sulk Tsipras on the internet) is talking about a victory for 87 and Polakis is also contradicting Kasselakis. Did you see Stefanos in a long play show produced by Koklonis saying that it takes him a dozen years to implement his development program as prime minister? And I want to get the Financial Times but they don’t fit me (Niko)! I also saw Aris Spiliotopoulos and Apostolos Gletso eating each other for legitimacy in SYRIZA. Let the hatred go, guys… you are at the same party!

PASOK

-While our Nikolas hey, galloping on the green horse, it’s like the tape was left taped on October 28. Whatever you tell him, Androulakis says “NO”, he said five no’s to the government for corresponding legislation. But the result counts and when a few months have passed, we will see what PASOK does and it will be decided whether the leader is right to keep denying everything that comes to Parliament from the New Democracy

Alarm at Goldman Sachs – JP Morgan: they will stay up late at the offices

-To understand what day is dawning for the markets due to the US elections, keep in mind that a red alert has been sounded at all major investment banks and brokerage firms on Wall Street (and other major exchanges) as they expect large price swings in stocks, bonds, and commodities depending on the outcome of the election. JP Morgan has decided to boost its staff in Europe and Asia for volatility during tonight’s election night. Goldman Sachs is sending hundreds of its executives on the ground in New York with instructions to stay in the offices overnight while their bosses monitor developments from home. Across the financial industry, special teams have been formed to prepare for an all-night vigil.

New shareholder in Duke’s training schools (after Moraitis and Kostas Neighbour)

-We now move on to market news, starting with a new deal we have in private education after those of Moraitis, Kostas Gitonas, and the International School of Athens. According to reports, a foreign organization unrelated to Inspire, nor Duka’s, who are the investors in the aforementioned schools, has joined the share capital of Doukas schools. According to information, the new shareholder in Doukas schools is a strong family office or foundation that operates abroad and has not appeared before in the Greek market. Another aspect of the deal is that the current main shareholder and director of the school, Con. Dukas remains a shareholder of the school by retaining a percentage of the shares and will continue to run the school. Since this is a deal, I assume the market will learn the name of the investor and the details in the coming days. The Douca schools were founded in 1917 under the name Palladio Lyceum in Kypseli and among other students were the writer Angelos Terzakis, the founder of the New Democracy Konstantinos Karamanlis, etc., and its premises today are located in Maroussi.

Why foreign investors are buying private schools

-There is no doubt that the catalyst for foreign educational and non-educational organizations’ interest in some of the most well-known and recognized private schools is the path that has opened up for private investors in higher education. Foreign investors aim to build on the good name of the school they have acquired to gradually create an organization that will provide all levels of education and at the same time, by improving the facilities, attract more students. This is the main financial objective of the investors, who do not seem to be planning any increases in tuition fees, which are at the limits of middle-income earners’ tolerance. For the same reasons, they want the families who run these schools to remain active in management to ensure the continuity of the good tradition that accompanies these schools.

CVC talks with IDEAL Holding for Stathis Barba Stathis

-According to reports, CVC is reportedly in direct talks with IDEAL Holding for the latter to acquire Barba Stathis from the Vivartia group. Sources asked about this refused to confirm but given that usually these negotiations take 8 to 12 months and due diligence another 3 to 4 months, this is a deal that has been in the works since at least the beginning of the year. Besides, IDEAL Holding has made no secret of its intentions to position itself in defense sectors, as L. Papaconstantinou said at the general meeting, as after the sale of Vytogiannis it has 130 million in cash and lines from the banks. At the same time, for CVC an exit with significant surpluses – such a deal is in the range of 170 to 200 million euros – is a great success, especially if the sale is made to a Greek company. It is interesting whether the negotiations concern only Barba Stathis, or also Golden Yeast.

What axios.com has to say about Ohio’s loss to Intralot

-The -generally reputable- website axios.com, has published a revealing story explaining how and why Intralot lost the Ohio Lottery contract. The revelations relate to the distant past and involve – directly and not directly – Intralot which – if it won the contract renewal – would have had to immediately invest more than $200 million, an amount that, at this stage, would have made it difficult for it. The axios.com article refers to the District Services Management company owned by a contractor, Allieu Kamara, who was arrested and pleaded guilty to bribing officials to obtain a wide range of contracts worth millions of dollars. District Services Management – as per the axios.com report – had taken over the gaming sector in 2019, acting as a subcontractor for the $215 million contract that Intralot was performing for the operation of the city’s Gambet DC app. While in mid-July, a one-year extension was granted on that contract, in August, federal prosecutors charged Kamara with bribery and fraud on several different city contracts. Kamara is listed as a managing director in the contract documents and District Services Management is headquartered at his home address. In the affidavit obtained by the FBI, sworn statements show that Kamara provided Council Member Traion White with envelopes of cash. White was arrested in August and has pleaded not guilty. When the scandal became public, Intralot requested that District Services Management be removed from the lottery contract on Sept. 12, according to a letter from the D.C. Department of Small and Local Business Development. The result is known: Intralot lost the Ohio contract and is now preparing to announce other moves in the U.S. market such as this new contract from the British Columbia State Lottery for an online gaming platform. Yesterday, however, Intralot’s shares lost 1 euro and its market capitalization fell to 593 million euros.

Dividend yield 9.56%

-This coming Monday, the interim dividend for the fiscal year 2024 distributed by OPAP, amounting to EUR 0.57 (net), will start to be credited to the accounts of the beneficiaries. The Agency has slightly increased the total amount and takes out of its coffers 216 million euros for the distribution of the interim dividend. Yesterday was the cut-off date, i.e. since yesterday OPAP shares have been trading without the right to the interim dividend, hence the 2.80% fall (to EUR 15.25), an entirely expected picture by the book. OPAP in 2024 has also distributed EUR 0.61 gross as a half-year dividend and another EUR 0.25 as a dividend gift, with the dividend yield on a 12-month basis amounting to a milky 9.56%. Analysts predict that the management of OPAP will continue its attractive policy towards shareholders in 2025. Until then, and specifically on November 20, OPAP will announce impressive third-quarter profitability growth. On the one hand, because the corresponding quarter last year was in shallow waters, and on the other hand because this year’s third quarter contained the largest jackpot in the history of TZOKER which started at the beginning of July and ended at the end of September, distributing – in total – the largest amount (19 million) ever given to a Greek player. In addition, this summer many different sporting events increased the betting on all OPAP games.

Light on HA from PPC

-The PPC stock has been one of the bright exceptions in the market in recent weeks, leaving behind a poor October stock market. It returned to price levels above 12 euros and even saw 12.25 euros (18/10) and closed yesterday at 12.03 euros. The decision taken yesterday to cancel 12,730,000 treasury shares (3.33% of its share capital) further favors shareholders, as the reduction in the total number of shares (to 369.27 million from 382 million) translates into an increase in the return on equity and an increase in the value of shares held by investors.

PPA has won, but the share price of…PPA is rising

-Yesterday it was officially announced that the Goldair Handling-Goldair Cargo appeal was rejected and provided there is no new appeal to the CoE in the next ten days, the Thessaloniki Port Authority will acquire 67% of the Volos Port Authority after paying a price of €51 million. The stock exchange reacted strangely: PPA’s share plummeted to €20.8, while on the contrary, the share of Piraeus Port Authority rose +1.39% to €29.2 with 15,800 shares traded. For a long time now, someone has been systematically buying PPA shares, while, at the same time, it seems that an alternative port corridor for freight transport is taking shape, for those who want to avoid the Chinese-dominated port of Piraeus and follow the Thessaloniki-Volos route with the prospect -at some point in the future- of Alexandroupolis. The fact remains: a professional investor is picking up – from the stock market – the free float shares of PPA. PPA’s shareholder structure is specific and difficult to change. 67% belongs to the Chinese Cosco, 7.14% to the Hellenic State Property Fund, and the free float is left with a little more than 25%.

Why listed companies are in a hurry to announce results

-This year, stock market-wise, has probably come to a close and is not expected to offer much excitement as most managers lock in their returns and calculate their bonuses for the year. The efforts of listed companies are focused on the new year’s placements and therefore many have pinned their hopes on the big roadshow organized by HKE in London on 25 November, a few days before “Black Friday”. This means that those listed companies interested in participating in the London roadshow would be well advised to have published their third-quarter results by then so that they have something concrete to present to the managers and analysts they will meet. In short, within the next 10 days, we will be bombarded with results announcements.

How Wall Street reacts after the US election

-The betting on tonight’s election results in America is over. Now the voters speak. And the statisticians. Who have sat down and measured what happens in the American stock market, on election day and the day after, from 1920 to yesterday. The S&P 500 index, in 83% of election years, on election day was positive by an average of +4.7%. On the day immediately following the election, the S&P 500 was positive in only 67% of election years, averaging +3.7%. The statistic says that Wall Street stocks, on average, perform +4.2% better, in the 6 months before the election, compared to the same period of non-election years. In contrast, in the 6 months after election day, stocks perform negatively, averaging -1.4%. Today, all of this matters little for a stock market in which the S&P 500 index has delivered a +40% return over the past 12 months. Of course, there is gold. In most election years, from 1920 until yesterday, the price of gold has been falling. This year gold is recording its best upward rally since 1979.

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