Bookies not backing Greek 2015 euro exit yet

Growing nerves over Greece have been the talk of financial markets for the past week, but online betting firms see only around a one-in-five chance it will leave the eurozone this year -- a lower likelihood than earlier this year.

British-based bookmakers Ladbrokes and William Hill ceased taking bets on Greece becoming the first country to leave the euro weeks ago, but on prediction markets sites, which allow punters to bet against each other, the debate is in full swing.

Such sites, which aggregate the best guesses of punters putting money on the line, have proved the best indicator of the outcome of a string of major political events including last month's UK parliamentary election.

They show probabilities broadly ranging within 1-2 points of 20 percent when the question is whether Greece will leave the euro this year. At one of the biggest sites, Betfair, bets worth more than 120,000 pounds ($189,000) have been laid on the issue.

Those contrast with the odds Betfair itself -- or competitor Paddy Power -- will give punters on their sportsbook websites, which suggest a lot more anxiety about the geopolitical risks they are exposing themselves to.

Paddy Power is offering odds of 2-to-1 on Greece leaving the euro, but that is still down from 11/10, or almost even money, at one point earlier in the year.

?This reflects a change in the percentage chance of Greece exiting the eurozone from 48 percent to 33 percent,? a Paddy Power spokesman said. ?But with the situation constantly evolving we wouldn't rule out further fluctuation over the next few days. We can't see Greece lightening up anytime soon.?

The sums involved are insignificant compared to the trillions in play on global financial markets daily.

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