Starmer’s victory comes with constraints

A centrist leader wins after a tired government runs out of energy. The British election result might possibly suggest parallels with Greece in 2019. And, while centrism is being defeated in France, it seems it has scored a major victory in the UK. This interpretation does not tell the proper story, however.

Yes, the tired government of Rishi Sunak suffered a devastating defeat - the worst in its history. But the Labour victory - while huge - is slightly less than Tony Blair won in 1997. And Labour's share of the national vote was barely any more than it obtained when it lost badly to Boris Johnson in 2019. The key difference is the collapse of support for the Conservatives - by over 20 percentage points.

After 14 years of the Conservatives in power, the country yearned for change. Many voters chose tactically to vote for the party with the best chance of keeping the...