Thucydides’ trap and Trump’s pit

President Donald Trump holds up a hat reading 'Make America Great Again' in Greek during a Greek Independence Day celebration at the White House in Washington, on March 18, 2019. The Greek-American lobby is expected to act as an important channel of communication between Athens and the new Trump administration. [Sarah Silbiger/The New York Times]

Thucydides described the cause of the Peloponnesian War as the inevitable clash between the established power at the time, Sparta, and the rising power, Athens. This so-called "Thucydides trap" has been used a lot lately as an analytical tool for the dangers inherent in the rising US-China rivalry. The US elections, however, showed that similar, dangerous dynamics can develop domestically.

When an established social group feels threatened by rising forces, then its top priority is to circle the wagons and beat off its rivals. Its members don't care so much about their immediate self-interest as long as they contribute to strengthening the group which they believe is their defense against a greater threat - like the women who voted for Trump despite his sexism, his crimes and the abolition of the federal right to an abortion. We could name what we see in the United States...

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