US-China relations amid Trump’s tariff threats

Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping managed to keep US-China tensions contained in 2024, but when Donald Trump strides back into the White House later this month, he will break this fragile stability, driving an unmanaged decoupling of the world's most important geopolitical relationship and increasing the risk of global economic disruption and crisis.

Trump will begin his second term as US president by announcing new tariffs on Chinese goods in order to force a new economic agreement on Beijing. These new tariffs won't reach the 60% blanket tariff level he threatened during the election campaign, but the top rate on all Chinese imports is likely to double to about 25 percent by the end of 2025.

China's leaders, meanwhile, will respond more forcefully and offer fewer concessions than during Trump's first term, despite the continuing weakness of China's economy. They...