War in Ukraine: Over 600,000 Russian casualties estimated by British Intelligence

According to British military intelligence, the total number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded in the Ukraine war has surpassed 610,000 since the conflict began. This estimate, shared in an official report, does not specify how many of these are deaths and how many are injuries, as reported by the Russian BBC service. It’s noted that international media typically reference American intelligence sources more frequently than British ones.

Earlier today, the Wall Street Journal cited “Western intelligence services,” stating that the combined number of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers killed or wounded in the 2.5-year conflict has reached approximately one million. The newspaper estimates that Russian casualties alone consist of 200,000 deaths and 400,000 injuries.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that Ukrainian military losses amount to around 80,000. While the heavy Russian casualties are described as painful for Moscow, they may have a more profound impact on the less populous Ukraine. The paper emphasizes that battlefield losses, along with population displacement, have caused significant damage to the future prospects of both nations. Ukraine’s population, which was 48 million according to the 2001 census, could have decreased to 25-27 million, not accounting for residents in Russian-occupied territories. Additionally, the report suggests that approximately 600,000 people, mostly young professionals, have left Russia since the war began.

British intelligence further states that the widespread use of mass infantry attacks has made the Russian military dependent on a continuous influx of recruits. Recruitment rates in 2024, however, have likely decreased. Last year, Russian officials claimed 1,600 people were enlisted daily, whereas this year the number is reportedly around 1,000. British intelligence suggests these figures may be somewhat exaggerated, estimating the probability of accuracy at 55% to 75%.

In August, the Russian Ministry of Defense increased the one-time payments for those signing contracts. Estimates (with unspecified sources) indicate that from January to June, military salaries accounted for 8% of Russia’s total budget expenditures. The increased compensation is expected to help maintain the recruitment of contract soldiers through the end of the year.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine publicly disclose their military losses. Some investigative journalist groups, in collaboration with volunteers, compile nominal lists of the deceased based on open sources. One such list, created by journalists from BBC’s Russian service in cooperation with the independent website Mediazona and volunteers, reports that 69,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the Ukraine war. Ukrainian military losses are documented by the unidentified website UAlosses, which reports 55,812 Ukrainian soldiers killed.

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