Shifting geopolitics

By Alexis Papachelas

The developments in Ukraine have given rise to a very interesting discussion over whether we are on the cusp of a major events that will affect global geopolitics. Some believe that we will return to the bipolar state of the Cold War, while others say that Russia is simply not powerful enough to form a rival pole to the West.

Meanwhile, events in the US are also taking an interesting turn. The debate over whether President Barack Obama is a force to be reckoned with is often expended on facile analyses of his decisions and behavior. Digging a little deeper into the issue reveals that Obama’s personality is not the real issue, but rather the deeper changes that are afoot as evidenced by his foreign policy choices.

Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, a veteran who has held numerous important posts and who served under both George W. Bush and Obama, recently published a fascinating book in which he expresses the realpolitik of a bygone era of American diplomacy. In his book, Gates admits that he had serious misgivings about the US pushing the case for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. What he wondered as defense secretary was what would happen if Russia reacted and who would go to defend the former Soviet satellites in the event of aggression from Moscow. He also expresses the abhorrence of realpolitik-minded politicians who think the US must make its military presence felt all over the world, without weighing the benefits and costs.

Gates is clearly referring to people such as former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who got America embroiled in the war in Kosovo for no apparent geopolitical reason, as well as Vice President Joe Biden, who wanted to see American troops in Libya and Syria, and, of...